Driver’s licenses will not exist—you won’t need one, because you won’t be driving
Through the first half of 2016, road fatalities in the U.S. climbed more than 10 percent compared with the same period last year, which saw an overall spike in traffic deaths of more than seven percent, the biggest increase in almost a half century. Tens of thousands die every year.
In 10 or 15 years, people who own cars will be thought of the same way as people today who own their own planes: They must have too much money or be an obsessed hobbyists or both. Whether you want to drive or not—even as a hobby—the decision might not be up to you.
“It’s possible it will be illegal to drive a car,” said Bradicich. Driverless cars could quickly result in, say, 90 percent fewer accidents, at which point we’ll start hearing, “I don’t want my neighbor down the road driving because he’s possibly nine times more likely to hit me than an autonomous vehicle,” Bradicich added.
In interviews with more than a dozen prominent futurists, academics and consultants on the effects of IoT, it was unanimous that people will drive less, and everyone will benefit. “Losing 30,000 people a year is really unacceptable, but we live with that,” said Cindy Frewen, a professor and board chair of the Association of Professional Futurists. “We’ve become numb to that fact, yet we take that risk every day. We talk about other things that are high risk, and they are, but cars are one we really don’t talk about.”
“In the future, it will likely be illegal to drive a car.”
Humans, historically, have proven they aren’t the best at understanding or mitigating risks. That will quickly change, and it will be one of the single greatest benefits of IoT, according to Marti Ryan, a consultant and the former CEO of Telematic, a cloud-based platform that provides auto insurance. “Personalization is what I see coming with IoT, and by that I mean personalized, location-based, just-in-time marketing, and personalized risk profiling,” she said. “You’ll be paying for the risks that you choose to take. I don’t know if it’ll be on a per-second, per-minute or per-day basis, but we’ll get to a point where when we make choices, we’ll pay for those choices.”
In other words, people who drive only sporadically won’t need full time auto coverage. Being conscious of more decisions means people, ultimately, will begin making better decisions. Insurance will be peer-to-peer, spreading by word of mouth, and people will team up to pool their own collective risks and save money. That shared data will lead to even greater efficiencies, as people will be able to collect and sell their own data, Ryan said.
“Humans aren’t the best at understanding or mitigating risks.”
“I’ll own all of my own data and get to shop my own data for insurance or financial services,” she said. “Companies that realize it’s all about the consumer and put the power of the data back in the consumer’s hands will rise to the top. The more companies take our data and do something useful, the more we’ll be conscious that our data is being shared, and the more we’ll want to share.”